Analysis of Olympic regatta in Paris-2024
Did you know that the recent Olympic regatta in Paris 2024 was the 11th fastest since 1993 among top world rowing events? The average speed in 13 consistent boat types was 1.63% slower than at the fastest Worlds in 2014, but 0.81% faster than the average over the last 31 years, very similar to the London 2012 Olympic regatta (0.84%). On average, the winners' speed was 97.54% of the World Best Times (WBT) in the respective categories.
The weather effect was probably quite mild during the four days of A finals. The last day was the fastest, with an average speed of 98.60% of WBT in singles and eights, while the second day was the slowest, with 96.71% in doubles and fours. W8+ was the fastest boat type in this regatta, showing 99.60%, and M2- was the slowest, with 96.05% of WBT.
The linear trend of rowing speed still increases by 0.044% per year (it was 0.042% after the previous Worlds in 2023, RBN 2023/09), but the non-linear trend has remained negative over the last decades. General non-linear approximation indicates stagnation and a slight decrease in rowing speeds after 2010.
Within rowing events, the highest increase of 0.114-0.158% per year was found again in both eights, confirming that the eights have shown the fastest growth in speed over the last years. LW2x had the third-highest growth at 0.061%, followed by all three men’s sculling events, which had similar growth at an average level of 0.044-0.047% per year. At the bottom end, consistent low growth was found in W1x, M4-, and W4x (less than 0.02% per year), and M2- was the only boat with a negative trend of -0.027% per year. This corresponds with the slowest percentage of WBT in M2- winners: despite the spectacular victory of the famous Croatian pair, the Sinkovic brothers; their result was more than 15 seconds slower than the WBT shown by the Kiwi pair in 2012.
A high correlation (r=0.824) was found between the percentage of WBT in this regatta and the linear growth of the event over the last 31 years. This confirms the validity of both methods and indicates a low weather effect on rowing speed during the four days of this regatta: boats with the highest growth over the years showed the highest speeds in this regatta.
The highest ever average stroke rate of was recorded in the A finals of this regatta - 40.2 spm. This is 1.3 spm higher than in the previous Worlds in 2023 when the trend appeared to be toward decreasing rates.
For the winners, the stroke rate increased in all rowers' categories except women's sculling. The most significant growth was found in women's sweep events, which now have the highest racing rates among rowers' categories: in all three boats, the rate was above 40 spm. The winners, W8+ ROU, achieved the highest ever average stroke rate of 43.3 spm, a typical pattern for Romanian crews; other examples include M2x (43.2 spm) and W2x (42.0 spm). Only the winners in women's sculling boats maintained their average stroke rate at the previous level of 37-38 spm. As previously observed, the differences in average stroke rates between place-takers in the A finals were insignificant.
An analysis of race strategy revealed that the winners did not have the most even speed among A finalists, which is different from previous years' findings. In this regatta, the winners significantly increased their speed in the final 500m but were relatively slower in the second quarter of the race.
The distribution of stroke rate was very similar in all finalists, except for the 5th and 6th place takers. This once again confirms our previous findings: the winners gained their advantage through significantly higher Effective Work per Stroke (EWpS) throughout the race. The most noticeable advantage of the winners in EWpS was found during the first half of the race and in the final 250m section.
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©2024 Dr. Valery Kleshnev