Divine proportion of Olympic regattas
Did you know that the margins in finals A of World regattas have not changed significantly over the course of more than 30 years? This challenges the common belief that "Olympic competition is getting tougher and tougher these days." This conclusion was made after our latest analysis of margins over the last eight Olympic regattas from 1996 to 2024. The smallest margins were observed at the Olympic regattas in 1996 and 2021, while the largest margins occurred in 2004 and 2008. This 2024 regatta ranks in the median range.
When comparing margins across rowers' categories, it was found that female events had slightly higher margins compared to male events. However, lightweight rowers had significantly smaller margins compared to open categories. This supports the general opinion that lightweight rowers face the toughest races at World regattas. Unfortunately, we won’t see lightweight rowing at the next Olympics in Los Angeles 2028...
Now, let’s add a bit of magic. We have analysed average margins (as % of rowing speed) in all 112 finals A of eight Olympic Games from 1996 to 2024. The ratio R was taken by means of dividing each next margin to the previous, so it shows how margins progress in the final. We have found that the average value of ratios between margins was Raver=1.618, which is very close to the “Golden Ratio” or "Divine Proportion."
In mathematics, the “Golden Ratio” is defined as the ratio φ of the larger quantity a to the smaller quantity b, if it is equal to the ratio of their sum to the larger of the two quantities: φ=(a+b)/a = a/b. It is an irrational number φ = (1 + √5)/2 = 1,618034… The Golden Ratio has many "magical" properties, it is connected to the Fibonacci sequence, the pentagram contains many Golden Proportions. The greatest mathematicians - from Pythagoras and Euclid in ancient Greece, through medieval Renaissance astronomers, to present-day scientists, biologists, artists, musicians, historians, architects, and even mystics have pondered and debated its ubiquity and appeal. Now, it has been discovered in rowing...
Simply put, Golden ratio in rowing means that each subsequent margin is approximately equal to the sum of the two previous ones. Similar patterns were also found in finals B, C, and D of World Regattas, where the average ratios ranged 1.61 - 1.63. However, this applies to individual races only and not across all competitors in an event. Further research is needed, all ideas are welcome……
In RBN 2020/09, we derived prognostic times for the 2024 Olympics and compared them with the published Australian and Canadian "Gold targets". Now, we have the opportunity to compare those projections with the actual results of the winners in Paris 2024. The closest match, at 101.1%, was found in BioRow prognostics, based on trends from World regatta winners. The second closest match, 101.5%, was shown by BioRow biomechanical modelling (ratios of prognostic to real speeds). Both the Australian and Canadian targets significantly overestimated the actual results, at 102.3% and 102.4%, respectively.
Unfortunately, the shortened down to 1500m race distance of makes Los-Angeles 2028 prognoses impossible. We can only estimate that speeds might be 3-4% faster, which would require a 7-12% increase in rowing power. Shorter races would demand more anaerobic energy production, increasing its share from 15-30% up to 30-40%, while aerobic production would decrease from 70-85% down to 60-70%. This would favour larger, stronger, and faster athletes, but disadvantage rowers with better endurance. Stroke rates may increase, requiring lighter rigging and/or shorter stroke lengths.
What effect is expected on the sport of rowing? The obvious negative impacts include a break in tradition and continuity, dilution of rowing image as an aerobic, endurance sport, and the inability to set or reference World best times and Olympic records. This could also negatively impact rowers' selection and careers. On the positive side, shorter races might result in more spectacular broadcasts (?) and provide a stimulus for development of new training methods and rowing equipment (?).
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©2024 Dr. Valery Kleshnev